Do Tertiary Education Studies Still Pay Off in New Zealand? Gender and Sectoral Dynamics
This study examines how the wage premiums to tertiary education in New Zealand evolved between 2009 and 2024 using HLFS data. It finds a long-term decline in premiums—especially at the bachelor and certificate levels—while postgraduate qualifications still yield higher rewards. Certificate-level premiums are very low or even negative in many sectors. Rather than a post-pandemic collapse, the study reveals a structural trend of increasing dispersion in returns, with premiums now depending more heavily on qualification type, industry, and position within the wage distribution. These findings raise questions about the consistent economic value of tertiary education across groups and sectors.